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If you think the current administration is mismanaging the economy straight towards disaster, you're not alone: so do two top economists from both sides of the political aisle. In Seeds of Destruction, former Bush chief White House economist R. Glenn Hubbard and well-known CNBC commentator Peter Navarro explain why current economic policy is a catastrophic failure. Then, they offer a comprehensive, bipartisan blueprint for reversing the decline of America's currency, manufacturing base, and standard of living - setting the stage for the epic policy debates that will precede the 2010 elections. Hubbard and Navarro begin with a "checklist" of what it takes to be a prosperous, democratic nation - and show why Obama's policies (some of Bush's also) fail on every level. They explain why the activist Federal Reserve and Obama fiscal stimulus policies are doing far more harm than good... why we must restore the U.S. manufacturing base, whatever China says about it... how to transform tax policy into an engine of growth and innovation... how to apply the "tough love" needed to save Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid... why America must resign the job of world policeman... how market-based solutions can finally deliver real energy independence... how to reform our antique financial regulatory system without imposing heavy-handed rules that cause even more trouble.
- Sales Rank: #189314 in Books
- Published on: 2010-08-23
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.56" h x 1.01" w x 5.75" l, .90 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 288 pages
Review
" ... Hubbard and Navarro propose a set of realistic solutions. The authors bring their vast academic and policy experience to bear on weighty issues such as U.S. oil dependence, health-care reform, Medicare, and housing imbalances. Their solutions have a distinctly bipartisan flavor ... "
-Library Journal
"This is a good and useful book."
-Financial Times
“Hubbard and Navarro provide a cogent analysis of America’s dangerous economic decline as well as a carefully thought out plan for recovery based on a manufacturing renaissance.”
–Clyde Prestowitz, Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute, and author of The Betrayal of American Prosperity and Three Billion New Capitalists
“A well-argued–and exceedingly timely–call to action for the White House and Congress to end partisan political bickering and move the American economy back to sound principles like free markets, entrepreneurship, and a renewed manufacturing base that will restore our nation’s greatness. Hubbard and Navarro focus a bipartisan perspective on practical policy reform.”
–Larry M. Wortzel, Ph.D., Commissioner and former Chairman of the U.S.—China Economic and Security Review Commission
“It is time for a clean sheet of paper that creates the ultimate focus on creating real jobs and driving the success of our private sector by significantly improving our global competitiveness and not further eroding it. Kudos to Glenn Hubbard and Peter Navarro for doing just that!”
–Dan DiMicco, Chairman, President, and CEO, Nucor Corporation
“Seeds of Destruction is everything that Washington policymaking is not: sober, lucid, reasoned, timely, bipartisan, and constructive. The United States is on a path to greater danger and diminished aspirations. Hubbard and Navarro illuminate the path to fulfilling this generation’s obligation to leave behind a nation with greater freedom and prosperity than it inherited.”
–Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President of the American Action Forum, and former Director of the Congressional Budget Office (2003—2005)
“Glenn Hubbard and Peter Navarro combine their unique experiences in government and politics with their crystal-clear economic insights to produce a lively and compelling account of the origins of the financial crisis and the problems now plaguing the American economy. The book convincingly explains how government policy planted the seeds of destruction and how a change in government policy can root them out and plant the seeds of prosperity. Their diagnoses and remedies should be read, studied carefully, and applied.”
–John B. Taylor, Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University, and former Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Finance
“A thoughtful and politically provocative diagnosis of America’s economic ills.”
–Kenneth S. Rogoff, coauthor of This Time is Different, and Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy, Harvard University
“This book is a ‘must-read’ for all persons who are concerned about our economic future. It shows the disastrous folly of our current economic policies and, more important, it lays out the proper policies to achieve a sound and prosperous economic future.”
–John Cogan, Leonard and Shirley Ely Fellow, Hoover Institution, and Professor of Public Policy Program, Stanford University; former Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Reagan administration
"This is a compact blockbuster of a book that gives six reasons why the U.S. economy has sunk so far and offers ten initiatives that the authors believe will lift us back up. It spares neither political camp and it appeals to both camps to take actions that will repair the damage they have caused over the past decade."
-Edmund Phelps, McVickar Professor of Political Economy, Columbia University, and 2006 winner of the Nobel Prize in Economic Science
From the Back Cover
Government policy and the Obama administration are driving the American economy straight toward catastrophe. Now, two respected economists–one a Republican, one a Democrat–explain why these policies are so dangerous and offer a bipartisan, common-sense blueprint for reversing America’s economic decline.
Glenn Hubbard and Peter Navarro explain why sustained growth is the only long-term solution, outline the elements of a vibrant economy, and explain why current policies are failing on every level. They reveal how we can finally restore the critical U.S. manufacturing base…return to our tradition of sound money…transform tax policy into an engine of growth and innovation…save Social Security and Medicare with “tough love”…use market-based solutions to achieve real energy independence…reform antique financial regulations without making matters worse...and balance our burgeoning budget deficits with strong economic growth rather than through punitive taxation.
Whatever your politics, if you’re frightened about the future, you should be. This book shows how we can grab the steering wheel, veer away from the cliff, and build a brighter economic future for everyone.
* Short-term stimulus, long-term disaster
Why massive federal spending and ultra-easy money policies spell long-term disaster
* Planting the new seeds of growth and innovation
How to restore America to the path of long-term prosperity
* Addressing the structural imbalances destroying the U.S. economy
Re-igniting the #1 driver of growth: business investment
About the Author
Glenn Hubbard, Dean of Columbia Business School, served in the Bush White House from February 2001 until March 2003 as the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and the OECD’s Economic Policy Committee. He also was the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury Department for Tax Analysis from 1991 to 1993. His commentaries appear frequently in the “Nightly Business Report,” “Marketplace,” The Wall Street Journal, and the Financial Times.
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Peter Navarro is a business professor at UC Irvine, CNBC contributor, and a widely sought-after speaker. He has appeared on Bloomberg TV and radio, CNN, NPR, and 60 Minutes. His books include Always a Winner and The Coming China Wars. His Web site is www.peternavarro.com.
Most helpful customer reviews
16 of 18 people found the following review helpful.
Finally!
By Chawks
Finally, we have a book that provides a good guide for the rebuilding of the American Economy. Most books focusing on economic growth assume that economy will recover as long as we have four conditions:
Republicans stress
1. Low tax rates to stimulate investment.
2. Little or no regulation of business activity.
Democrats focus on
1. Government spending to boost consumer confidence and thereby encourage consumers to spend money.
2. Increase business regulation either to increase opportunity and fairness or to increase the power of Washington D.C.
Are either of these prescriptions accurate?
The turbulent last decade has been in a way a great laboratory to test economic theories. Early in the decade Republicans received their chance to prove that low tax rates and reduced business regulations would lead to superior economic growth. Democrats now have had two years to prove that massive government spending would increase economic growth. Sadly, it appears that neither one of these theories is the answer. Currently, unemployment levels are near twenty percent if you count those who have been unemployed for more than six months. Unemployment levels were around twenty five percent during the great depression. Clearly neither strategy has been working very well over the last decade. During the last decade we have had two major stock market crashes, two rounds of fraudulent accounting scandals, and two unsustainable economic bubbles and a negative return on the S&P 500.
The Seeds of Destruction takes a different take on economic growth. Authors Glenn Hubbard and Peter Navarro prescription aligns closely with historical evidence on how economies grow.
Hubbard and Navarro's prescription is:
1. Free markets Free of corruption and Monopoly. "A free market free of monopoly elements - Adam Smith, Wealth Of Nations" According to Adam Smith you need laws to control corruption and monopolies. Lack of trust leads to economic freeze ups because no one wants to take the risk that they might lose their entire investment. This is true in investment markets and the grocery market. Who would shop at a grocery store if there was risk that they would not deliver the groceries over to you.
2. Free and Fair Trade Helps all countries grow. Free trade between two nations will never lead to stronger economic growth for both countries unless both play by the same rules. In short, you cannot have one country protecting its market while the other does not. Nor can one country manipulate its currency while the other does not. Page 32 of this book.
3. Entrepreneurship - Historically what has led America to the top was new inventions in machinery and operations. Innovators looking for easier, safer and more efficient methods in order to reduce waste and increase profits. Joseph Schumpeter observed this in his 1942 treatise Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy.
4. Without savings there can be no investment and growth.
5. Stable banking system. The Glass Steagall Act of the 1930's was implemented to reduce banking instability that contributed to the great depression. After its passage America had one of the most stable if not the most stable banking systems in the world. Ten years after its repeal the United States has had two stock market crashes, two large scale fraudulent accounting scandals and a huge government bailout to save the banking system which is going to cost tax payers billions.
6. Technological change matters more than machines and workers.
7. Workers matter as much as physical capital. Workers create technological innovation with new designs and operational techniques. Second, studies have found that companies that treat their workers well tend to have greater labor stability, higher profits and greater innovation. See The Human Equation: Building Profits by Putting People First
8. Energy dependence stunts economic growth. Oil accounts for 40% of the United States trade deficit in goods. Second, the high price of oil is in effect a tax that is paid to overseas nations such as Iran. In addition, when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to stimulate the economy this action is undone by a decline in the dollar which increases the price of oil which slows the economy. So by being energy dependent, you lose some ability to control the economy to foreign nations which may not favor the U.S.
9. A healthy nation is a productive and prosperous nation. University of Chicago Professor Robert Fogel has pointed out that there is a close connection between economic growth and improvements in human physiology. Currently, the US health care system is a reactive system not a proactive system. Why not try to head off problems before they occur. See Diet and Health Live 10 Healthy Years Longer The Blue Zones: Lessons for Living Longer From the People Who've Lived the Longest
10. A solid manufacturing base makes for a strong economy. Manufacturing jobs create more growth in other economic sectors. For every dollar of manufacturing output America creates almost a dollar and a half in related services. Finally, as Andrew Grove (Intel) pointed out in a recent Business Week article (July, 1, 2010) a huge amount of technical and operational innovation is learned on the manufacturing floor. Without manufacturing, a significant amount of innovation disappears from the U.S. economy and moves the the manufacturing country.
26 of 36 people found the following review helpful.
Sowing Seeds of Stagnation - a critique and explanation of Obama's Economic Policies
By Angela M. Hey
Two Harvard educated economists explain why they don't like Obama's economic policies. The book also explains some basic economics. It starts by defining GDP and the levers of growth for the US Economy - free trade, entrepreneurship, savings, bank stability, innovation, human capital, independence from oil, healthy populace, manufacturing. Whereas manufacturing is a lever, I'm not convinced it's an essential lever in a knowledge-based, services-based economy. Whereas manufacturing CEOs are well-paid, the thesis that manufacturing jobs enjoy a "wage premium" may have been true in the past, but in the future knowledge-based jobs may generate higher salaries.
The book has a clear description of problems with the Fed's easy money policies and a critique of government stimulus programs. The book claims that short term stimulus programs make long term structural economic problems, but if the situation is dire, a quick fix can help people - although I agree with the authors that financing an increasing deficit is not good for the economy.
In chapter 5, the authors cry for a simplified taxation scheme and lower taxes. What the authors fail to realize is that taxes applied to the right government programs can enrich the country. They take the popular view that taxes are bad for the economy - without a serious analysis of which taxes are applied. There is a good analysis of the types of tax people might pay, but no analysis of where the government might levy taxes.
Chapter 6 discusses China, reflecting the fashionable beef of US policy makers - it has an undervalued currency and doesn't abide by World Trade Organization rules because it sells at marginal prices. It then goes on to discuss pollution and piracy - behaviors contrary to US business conduct.
The authors admonish US policy makers to find the optimal amount of oil to import, rather than aiming for zero dependence on foreign oil, which would be too costly for the economy. They propose a flexible tariff on imported oil - so weaken their free trade stance.
In looking at ways to reduce Social Security and entitlement program costs, the authors take a purely economic approach. They advocate raising the retirement age. They rightfully point out that the cost of ObamaCare is not well thought out and advocate a more market-driven health system.
This book lacks moral arguments, it is purely focused on economics. There are policies that might be right, but politically abhorrent. A moral society will care for its poor, regardless of economic arguments.
In summary, this book provides a general introduction to current government policies and suggests alternative ways to grow the economy. It is not a detailed book that discusses the details of how you stimulate economic growth through vision, charisma and moral imperatives. Given the authors' Washington experience it is also US centric.
6 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
A clear, but highly partisan, blueprint for economic policy
By Aaron C. Brown
The cover and publicity materials for this book highlight that it is non-partisan. The co-authors are prominent Republican and Democrat economists, with strong academic credentials and policy experience. The solutions are pretty much in line with the bipartisan compromises worked out by Presidents Clinton and Bush from 1995 to 2003. Those were considered center-right at the time and are squarely centerist today.
But centerist and bipartisan is not the same as non-partisan. The authors get to their position by adopting two extremes. In the libertarian view of the world, people should do what they want, and keep what they earn. Government and taxes are necessary evils not because they are corrupt or inefficient, but simply because they infringe on individual rights. Socialists think of everything as the property of society, because society creates value, not individuals. The government allows people to keep some of what they earn in order to provide incentives, not as a matter of right.
In this respect, the authors sound as if they would be at home working for Gosplan, the organization that planned the Soviet Union's economy. There is no mention of individual rights in the book, instead an almost Stalinist preoccupation with scientific management of aggregate economic quantities. There is no discussion of what GDP or employment rates really measure, and if perhaps they leave important things out.
Like socialists, the authors also assume the goal is to improve things for one country, and they need not worry about whether that includes illegal immigrants, unborn children, lazy people or criminals. There is a well-defined State, with well-defined interests. For example, when discussing US trade deficits, the money is treated as if it disappeared. There is no consideration that it may have lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, and helped make the world more democratic and prosperous, to everyone's advantage. Libertarians believe all humans have the same rights, they are not parceled out by bureaucratic fiat.
Where the authors break from the socialist camp is in their strong faith in private markets and innovation, and corresponding assumption that government programs will be inefficient and corrupt. Most socialists assume the opposite, that the government will act fairly and competently in the social interest, while unregulated private behavior is likely to be antisocial, enriching criminals and impoverishing honest working people.
For one example, the authors note that US per capita health care spending exceeds that of other nations with higher life expectancies. They do not mention problems with measuring health care spending or life expectancies, they take the figures as if carved in stone. They do not consider people spend health care dollars for things other than extending their lives (like feeling better, looking better, relieving anxiety, etc.). This is about as silly as someone showing that Americans spend more money per capita on automobiles, but have longer average commutes to work.
Now most people who use this kind of logic argue for the government to take over health care, or at least increase regulation. Seeds of Destruction reverses field to blame government intervention for the problems. Under the car analogy, socialists would likely argue the government should seize the "wasted" resources from excessive car consumption and use it to provide free mass transportation for everyone, thereby reducing commute times for the same expenditure. In this book, the authors instead might call for ending public construction of roads and other subsidies for automobile use. In the case of health care, I think they come up with some reasonable proposals for reducing government distortion of the market; but on a logical basis they are making the same argument as socialists, just reversing the conclusion.
Surprisingly, this combination of extremes results in sensible policy proscriptions that might be politically possible. The US center-left reluctantly accepts as temporary expedients that we have to cut back government in order to make good on the promises we have already made, and restore growth and innovation in the private sector. The US center-right reluctantly accepts as temporary expedients that we have to find a way to pay down the accumulated debt and also to fund at least partially pension obligations and entitlements. You may not have voted for the programs, but if they fail our economy may go with them.
The policies are clearly described, but the rationales are not. Partly this is due to the extreme unexamined assumptions that underlie the analysis. It is also due to a style of arguing through word choice. In the best alarmist tradition, anything the authors don't like is "massive," "threatening," or "unsustainable," but no reasons or numbers are given. Purchasing power does not decline, inflation "ignites," as if any increase in the CPI leads to a worthless currency. That we will be forced "down the road to confront some very unpleasant choices," is described as a "clear and present danger." It is neither. That phrase was invented by Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes precisely to prevent suspension of Constitutional rights by vague "unpleasant choices" that are "down the road."
So read this as a well-organized and carefully researched blueprint for action, as a counterargument to those who think disaster is inevitable and any solutions politically unpalatable. But it is just a blueprint, it does not explain what is being built or why.
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